Trump’s MAGA base has been fattened on a diet of fetid prejudice, some of which has come straight from the plate of their messiah, Donald Trump. Sample this scrap: “They’re (illegal immigrants) poisoning the blood of our country.” At the time, many said Trump’s words had the faint ring of Goebbelsian paranoia—“blood poisoning,” after all, was a phrase straight out of the Nazi bible Mein Kampf.
Now, after having primed the MAGA base to receive their daily pound of flesh, Trump, who took the oath last month, has moved swiftly to slake their hunger. And he’s going for the lowest-hanging Latino and Indian carrion available.
Trump has launched military deportation flights as part of his national emergency declaration on immigration. A little over a dozen planeloads of migrants have been deported to Guatemala, and one to India.
Despite nationalists goading their leaderships, both countries did not let pride get in the way of pragmatism and assured Trump that they wanted to “do the right thing.” Sure, it is embarrassing to see the US repatriate your citizens, but as Mexico and Colombia discovered, risking a fight with Trump over “illegals” is not worth it. After all, no rhetorician in any country—even in an endemically argumentative one like India—can morally justify illegal immigration.
But this is not to say India should do nothing. The country is very much part of America’s illegal immigration problem—a living and breathing indictment of the floundering Make in India initiative. The Modi administration must recognise the flight of Indians as a symptom of flagging opportunities and create incentives to retain its citizens.
In the near term, however, India should let Trump have his moment.
It isn’t as if Trump will be able to send back all 18,000 Indian “illegals” identified for repatriation, who are only a sliver of the 700,000 more dunkis purportedly living in America. Trump will soon realise that America could end up all the poorer for his populism.
By some credible estimates, Donald Trump’s mass deportation promise could cost the US over $300 billion—up from the $50 billion it was estimated to cost in 2016. At the time, the per-person cost of deporting an illegal immigrant was calculated to be a little over $10,000. The $300 billion figure, adjusted for inflation, includes expenses for “detention, legal proceedings, and transportation back to the individual’s home country.”
The cost of deportation is just one of the hidden expenses. The sudden evaporation of cheap labour from the American market—and its deflationary impact on the manufacturing, agricultural, housing, and infrastructure sectors—is another. The Peterson Institute for International Economics estimates that US GDP would be six per cent below the long-run baseline if all illegal immigrants were removed. Such an erosion would significantly undermine US economic competitiveness at a time when Trump is vowing to make America rich again.
But circling back to the cost of deportation—one that will be immediately borne by the US taxpayer, including MAGA plenipotentiaries—here are some numbers.
It has been estimated that using military planes to deport Guatemalans, for instance, will cost at least $4,675 per migrant. That’s more than the price of a first-class ticket on a commercial airliner!
As astounding as this may sound, this figure is an underestimation. According to those in the know, the estimated cost of operating a C-17 military transport aircraft is $28,500 per hour. The flight to and from Guatemala—excluding time on the ground or any operations to prepare for take-off—takes about ten and a half hours. You do the maths.
The cost of using the same C-17 aircraft to fly out 200-plus “illegals” to India—much further from the US than Guatemala—will obviously be far higher.
Trump is not the first US president to send Indians back home. Over the past two years, the US has deported over 1,000 dunkis. Then it all stopped. Until now.
Trump may send back a few more “illegals,” but being a businessman accustomed to flipping balance sheets, he will soon focus on net return on investment. The dwindling returns will bother him—but more importantly, they will deter him.
